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Paper, where to go?

Waste paper is an important raw material in the paper industry and currently accounts for 65% of papermaking materials. Among them, imported waste paper pulp accounted for 21%. According to statistics, the national waste paper consumption in 2017 was 78.57 million tons, except for imported 25.72 million tons, and the remaining domestic waste paper consumption was 52.85 million tons. In 2017, China's total paper production was 111.3 million tons. According to the domestic waste paper recycling rate of 50%, the amount of waste paper that can be used is about 55.65 million tons. The space for domestic waste paper recycling has been very limited, far from being filled because of imported waste. The paper reduces the margin left behind.
According to the solid waste import policy, zero import before 2020 means that 10 million tons of imported waste paper will be reduced every year and next year. In the short term, domestic waste paper cannot improve the recovery rate at once, and it is difficult to fill huge market vacancies. The most intuitive response will be that the price of waste paper will increase again. If the price of waste paper, which is already at a high level, rises again, it will further increase the cost of waste paper raw materials for papermaking, and the corresponding paper price will also increase.
The current paper price has already caused a serious impact on the entire industrial chain. After many fluctuations in the market, adjustments are becoming more balanced, and the value transmission of the industrial chain is also being rationally restored. If there is a problem in the supply of raw materials due to drastic changes in the structure of raw materials, the structure of the paper industry will be changed from the foundation, and small papermaking enterprises using waste paper as raw materials may have a collapse.
The sharp decline in imported waste paper will also create another serious problem, that is, the quality of domestic waste paper will continue to deteriorate. At present, the domestic waste paper recycling system is still not perfect, lacking meticulous industry standards, low waste paper sorting rate, and repeated use of fiber quality has caused significant decline in fiber quality.
Waste paper recycling is a green and environmentally friendly way, and imported waste paper is mostly used once, and the fiber quality is relatively good, which can balance the quality of domestic waste paper to a certain extent. After years of market adjustment, the recycling of raw materials for paper waste in China has basically formed a small cycle of domestic waste paper recycling and the use of imported waste paper to optimize the recycling of waste paper raw materials. If the imported waste paper is stopped for a short period of time, the big cycle will disappear, leaving only the domestic small cycle. The consequence will be that the quality of domestic waste paper will continue to decrease, and the quality of paper products will be greatly reduced, which will affect the competitiveness of Chinese paper products.
The international trade market is very crowded and seems to be extremely serious. In fact, it will tend to disappear in the country's strong response. The state's increasing emphasis on environmental protection and the people's better life puts higher demands on the paper industry. On June 28, the Ministry of Eco-Environment announced a list of enterprises that did not submit a report on the implementation of the discharge permit, and 559 paper-making enterprises did not. Submit the implementation report as required. According to the relevant regulations of the pollutant discharge permit system, if these enterprises fail to submit the report within the specified time, they may be further punished or even cancel the discharge permit. The final result will only be discontinued or closed down. Foreign imported waste paper is blocked and environmental protection is intensified. The Chinese paper industry is coming to a historical juncture, and it is worthwhile for industry entrepreneurs to think about it.